dice

[OneEyed]

hm, how exactly dice works here? because sometimes I can not beat 1 troop with 6.

OneEyed

 

[sundicekid]

I have something to say about dice - if they were on your side every time, it would be:

1. Boring as hell
2. Craps wouldn't be a game (interesting name)
3. And it's awesome when crap dice happen to your opponent right when you need it the most and you win a Tourney or a totally excellent epic game and makes you feel like the dice gods really do care about you after all! (psst, I always knew they loved me best)

 

[OneEyed]

today I lost two times in defferent games 6:1 all troops.
is that common?

OneEyed

PS: do not ask for trolling, but it seems that something with dice is not good. according to several posts here.

 

[Chilly]

If we are just going anecdotally, then I'll share my experience.

Sometimes I get totally screwed over by the dice. Other times I make miraculous attacks that should never have been successful.

As the wiki article explains, when I have spectacular luck, the person on the other end who is getting abused doesn't experience it at the same time, if they even realize it. Likewise, when I am getting hosed, the person on the other side may or may not realize their stellar luck.

If you really want to take luck out of the equation, there is an option for you (at least if you are a gold member). Try fixed force.

According to my post, the dice aren't broken; merely our perception of them...

...and speaking of dice, check out this absurdly cool kickstarter campaign if you ever played D&D or just love rolling dice:

 

[NewSheriffInTown]

Well, I just had a 20v14 making a 3v14.......... I was so pissed off I forgot to print screen
Game over, sometimes live sucks

Here are the win/loss results for that game. As you can see, the is no 17 troop loss in a row, so sorry, no record.

However, in round 65 you did lose 26 troops and only took 10. So that was a pretty bad round for you. But none of those losses were unbroken streaks. And furthermore, Your total losses for the game were 109, and wins were 123, you're doing pretty good!

Just goes to show what our brains remember, and what we tend to forget.

Round ~ Troops Lost ~ Troops Defeated
3 ~ 0 ~ 1
3 ~ 0 ~ 1
9 ~ 1 ~ 0
9 ~ 0 ~ 1
9 ~ 0 ~ 1
9 ~ 0 ~ 2
9 ~ 1 ~ 0
9 ~ 0 ~ 1
15 ~ 0 ~ 2
15 ~ 2 ~ 0
15 ~ 0 ~ 2
15 ~ 0 ~ 1
15 ~ 0 ~ 1
21 ~ 0 ~ 1
21 ~ 1 ~ 0
21 ~ 0 ~ 1
27 ~ 1 ~ 1
27 ~ 2 ~ 0
27 ~ 1 ~ 1
27 ~ 1 ~ 1
27 ~ 1 ~ 1
27 ~ 0 ~ 1
27 ~ 0 ~ 1
32 ~ 0 ~ 2
32 ~ 0 ~ 2
32 ~ 1 ~ 0
32 ~ 1 ~ 0
32 ~ 1 ~ 0
32 ~ 1 ~ 0
32 ~ 1 ~ 0
32 ~ 0 ~ 1
37 ~ 0 ~ 1
42 ~ 2 ~ 0
42 ~ 1 ~ 1
42 ~ 0 ~ 2
42 ~ 0 ~ 1
42 ~ 0 ~ 1
42 ~ 0 ~ 1
42 ~ 0 ~ 1
47 ~ 0 ~ 1
52 ~ 1 ~ 0
52 ~ 0 ~ 1
52 ~ 1 ~ 0
52 ~ 1 ~ 0
52 ~ 1 ~ 0
52 ~ 0 ~ 1
52 ~ 1 ~ 0
52 ~ 0 ~ 1
52 ~ 0 ~ 1
52 ~ 1 ~ 0
52 ~ 1 ~ 0
52 ~ 0 ~ 1
52 ~ 1 ~ 0
52 ~ 0 ~ 1
52 ~ 0 ~ 1
52 ~ 1 ~ 0
52 ~ 0 ~ 1
52 ~ 0 ~ 1
52 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 1 ~ 1
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 2
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 1 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 2
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 2
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 2
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 2
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 2
57 ~ 0 ~ 2
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 1 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 2
57 ~ 1 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 2
57 ~ 1 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 2
57 ~ 1 ~ 1
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 1 ~ 1
57 ~ 2 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 2
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 1 ~ 0
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
57 ~ 0 ~ 1
61 ~ 2 ~ 0
61 ~ 2 ~ 0
61 ~ 0 ~ 2
61 ~ 0 ~ 1
61 ~ 0 ~ 1
61 ~ 0 ~ 1
61 ~ 0 ~ 1
61 ~ 0 ~ 1
61 ~ 0 ~ 1
61 ~ 0 ~ 1
61 ~ 0 ~ 1
61 ~ 1 ~ 0
61 ~ 0 ~ 1
65 ~ 2 ~ 0
65 ~ 2 ~ 0
65 ~ 0 ~ 2
65 ~ 0 ~ 1
65 ~ 0 ~ 2
65 ~ 2 ~ 0
65 ~ 2 ~ 0
65 ~ 1 ~ 1
65 ~ 2 ~ 0
65 ~ 1 ~ 1
65 ~ 2 ~ 0
65 ~ 2 ~ 0
65 ~ 0 ~ 2
65 ~ 2 ~ 0
65 ~ 2 ~ 0
65 ~ 1 ~ 1
65 ~ 2 ~ 0
65 ~ 2 ~ 0
65 ~ 1 ~ 1
69 ~ 0 ~ 1
69 ~ 0 ~ 1
69 ~ 0 ~ 1
69 ~ 0 ~ 1
69 ~ 2 ~ 0
69 ~ 2 ~ 0
69 ~ 2 ~ 0
Total ~ 109 ~ 123

 

[NewSheriffInTown]

PS: do not ask for trolling, but it seems that something with dice is not good. according to several posts here.

Dice are not good for whom? Because if they are bad for you, then they are good for your opponent. Every roll is good for someone!

 

[NewSheriffInTown]

...and speaking of dice, check out this absurdly cool kickstarter campaign if you ever played D&D or just love rolling dice:

Very.... cool... dice.

 

[OneEyed]

Dice are not good for whom? Because if they are bad for you, then they are good for your opponent. Every roll is good for someone!

the question is if it is normal, two times lost 6:1.

OneEyed

 

[Sebrim]

it's as normal as seeing six white cars after each other and that twice!

 

[NewSheriffInTown]

the question is if it is normal, two times lost 6:1.

OneEyed

You had 6 troops and you attacked 1 troop? Then you lost 5 and ended up with 1 troop left?

Yeah, it's happened to me. Not often, but it happens. At least 10 times or more times to me.... If you play a lot.

Once you start attacking with 3 troops or less, the odds of winning get bad. Always attack with 4 or more troops.

 

[Chilly]

the question is if it is normal, two times lost 6:1.

OneEyed

If you want the exact dice odds, attacking with a 6 stacks (which means you are actually only attacking with 5) against a 1 results in losing all 5 armies just under 1% of the time. Losing two in a row like that means 1/100 * 1/100 = 1/10,000.

However, the probability is not multiplicative unless they two events happened immediately after each other. The odds go up very fast if you account for other things happening in between.

This is not outside the realm of crazy odds to me...even the 1/10,000

 

[Oggyyy]

How many dice rolls happen a day on majcom?

The reason I ask is that the odds being flung around are 1:10000 - for back to back 6v1 losses - which I have mad myself this week (let alone the outrageous streak of 6's on a defence of 2 mentioned already.

Start putting them together and the odds of them happening as much as being mentioned seems a little....off - something doesn't seem right?

 

[Bluebonnet]

if 6you dont like the dice, prove they are wrong.

record 10,000 or so of your rolls. every single roll in order.
then you can run a regression anlaysis. or even better, compare it to a excel random number generator or real dice you have rolled and use a chi square test.

without statistical analsys, all you sating the unlikely happened. which proves nothing. the uinlikely happens all the time.

people do win the lottery and people are struck by lightning. it happens.

unless you look at the whole picture all you are doing is focusing on a small corner your are interested in at ther moment.

 

[Oggyyy]

Well considering my position I am hardly going to invest my time looking at this when I am not starting any new games.

My part in this discussion is highlighting that many peculiar roles have happened lately (to the tune of it seeming odd) - I completely appreciate freaky, highly unlikely events, but recurring daily?

The Sheriff, and the other majcom staff have access to everybody's dice rolls, so it would make more sense for them to publish those figures.

So in short, no, I personally won't be recording 10,000 of my dice rolls.

 

[NewSheriffInTown]

Only Marcos and I can see the dice rolls. No one else.

The reason I posted those rolls, besides being asked to, was to highlight that people only remember the bad things, and not the good.

LordAdef defeated 123 troops, while only losing 109, that's great, yet he complained about having bad luck during that game, and complained about losing 20 troops in a row, which also did not happen.

I don't know the psychology behind it, but people always complain that the dice are unfair, and think the worst is happening, even if they are winning.

But you are correct, the only way to curb these feelings is to publish all the dice rolls and stats for everyone. We PLAN on doing that. It is on top of our list. And then hopefully this illusion of bad, unfair, and odd-defying dice, will go away.

You'll just have to wait until for us to finish rebuilding the game engine and then allow us time to create a new page for the stats. Until then, I'll be happy to post the stats whenever I can, but you also have to realize, that until the stats page arrives, human psychology will be at work selectively choosing what to remember and what to forget.

 

[OneEyed]

I agreed that its just feeling. I was in another Risk site (time ago) and dice was similar. and there were also much complains.
lets aim on recoding...

OneEyed

 

[LordAdef]

Damnit Sheriff, no record!!

Thanks!

 

[Shepherd]

Here's a question: Why does nobody ever complain about the dice being unfair when they go on a run of good rolls? Wouldn't an unusual series of favorable rolls - which I've gotten many times - be as much an indication of a bad system as an unusual series of unfavorable rolls?


My answer: When we get good rolls we attribute it to our own good decision making, not random luck, and we pat ourselves on the back for being awesome; when we get bad rolls we attribute it to an unfair system and not to our own poor decisions.

 

[edsdad]

The bad rolls are what make the good ones sooooooooooooooooo sweet,ya win some you lose some,carry on.

 

[Oggyyy]

Can't argue with any of the above all fair points.

Can't deny whst I have seen though. Good or bad.

 

[riskyone]

Streaks happen, and shepherd is right about. When it's good we feel it's due to strategy not luck. It runs both ways. It just hurts when the bad streak goes on to long.