What is your win formula (number of troops)?

[Badorties]

So you want to take out 23 enemy troops across 8 regions.

How do you decide how many troops you need to do it?

My basic strategy is to add the number of enemy troops and the number of regions. 23+8 = 31. So at a bare minimum to be successful, i need 31 to have a decent shot. 31 is not a guaranteed win, but I wouldn't attack with anything less if i wanted to make it work.

Do you use similar methods, or other methods perhaps?

 

[Cassidy]

http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

is it 2,2,2,2,2,2,2,9? or 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,16?

But yeah, as a rule of thumb, your method is fine.

 

[Shepherd]

cassidy's point is crucial... if I'm hitting a bunch of 1s I can count on minimal losses, and so your Armies + Regions formula sets a good minimum; by the time I go up against his 16 I should still have more than 16 armies in reserve. But if I'm going up against a bunch of defended countries I have to assume a loss of at least one army for every two that I attack in addition to the army I have to leave behind in each region, so I'd want double the opposing army count; in this case at least 46 armies.

 

[WidowMakers]

number of regions I will need to occupy (R)
total army count of opposition (D)

Armies needed to attack (A) = R + 1.5(D)

So in your case
A = 8 + 1.5(23) = approx 42

If there are lots of 1's then my factor of 1.5 would get reduced to 1.25.
If there are lots of 3's or 4's then my factor of 1.5 would get increased to 1.75

Pretty much what Cass and Shep said.

 

[WidowMakers]

It would be nice to have this built in as a feature or add on the players could use.

Maybe we could (eventually) add another tab for Strategic Info.
That would house dice analysis, in game charts, attacking probability, etc.

That way everyoen would have it and all could use it.

 

[Incandenza]

http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

is it 2,2,2,2,2,2,2,9? or 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,16?

But yeah, as a rule of thumb, your method is fine.

I can't emphasize enough how insanely useful this link is for calculating odds... It's not perfect (doesn't work with bombards, and you need to fudge it a bit if you're attacking one region on multiple fronts) but it's a great tool.

Personally, I tend to be uncomfy with anything below 60% unless there's extenuating circumstances. Last thing you want to do is hang someone in a game you're winning and give it away.

 

[Robinette]

Consider this...

Your 1st 3-4 men on a territory are useless...
On average, you will lose 1 for every 3 singles you take,
And you will lose, on average, even amounts against big numbers...


I like 80%+ odds...
but realize that if you have 3 fronts,
each with an 80% chance of winning,,,
you actually have barely a 50% chance of succeeding (.80x.80x.80=.51)

 

[Incandenza]

And of course this is all context-specific. If I'm in an escalating singles game, and I have a killshot with the odds robin put forth (3 80% fronts, 50% total), I might take that shot if I know that there's substantially less than a 50% shot that I'll get another turn, especially if by pulling off said killshot I can more or less waltz to victory.

Some would argue that you take the shot even with 10% odds if you know you're finished if you don't give it a shot, but that's a bit of a gray area.

 

[Badorties]

I always take that 10% shot, which might explain why I am so low on the scoreboard.

 

[Shepherd]

a blue-eyed brunette with long legs and a nice rack - that's a winning formula.

 

[RjBeals]

how the hell did i get to number-2. I'm one of the worst cc players ever. Must be a flaw in the dice.